Updated: Thursday, 02 Oct 2014 17:04 | Comments
By Tadhg Peavoy
GUINNESS PRO12 FIXTURES
Friday 3 October
Connacht v Cardiff Blues, 1935
Ulster v Edinburgh, 1935
Zebre v Ospreys, 1935
Saturday 4 October
Leinster v Munster, 1830 (live on RTÉ Radio 1)
Sunday 5 October
Benetton Treviso v Glasgow Warriors, 1400
Ulster v Edinburgh, Ravenhill, Friday, 1935
A red card in rugby, especially early in a tie, almost always signals a looming defeat come full-time for any side. The physical pressure of defending one man short of your normal system drains legs and empties lungs at a fierce rate.
Going forward, gaps are so much harder to find and the defence has the luxury of double-teaming certain attackers while not leaving any holes in their own defence.
When Declan Fitzpatrick saw red for Ulster against Zebre last Saturday, for all the reasons above, it was highly unlikely his side would take the predicted four points from Italy. And so it proved as the Italian side produced one of their best performances in recent times to stretch Ulster wide and dominate the breakdown area with efficiency in the parts of the pitch that mattered.
In those circumstances Ulster were always going to struggle and were up against it. They had to get every part of their game spot on if they were to record what would have been a famous victory.
But they didn't. In fact, under pressure, they crumbled somewhat. And it is that nature of brittleness that was most worrying about their performance.
As well as addressing technical aspects of their game in order to get back on track, they will need to address their mental approach to being in a very tight spot, and a dog fight, which is what the game against Zebre became. Often under such pressure, playing a tight game, therefore reducing the chance of a high error count, can be the most effective strategy for success.
Therefore, their mental approach, and ability to adapt their game, will be questioned again this weekend against Edinburgh.
The hatchet has been wielded post their nightmare in Italy with ten changes to the side. Testament to the strength of the squad they don't look weakened by this, with the return of Jared Payne and Andrew Trimble in the backline major boosts.
Technically, Ulster were poor in most facets once they went a man down. Their defence was porous, tackles were missed, and they tended to get sucked in too tight, creating width for Zebre to exploit.
In attack, ball handling was poor and they failed to crank up the gears through retention. However, the opposite has been true of them in all their other matches this season, meaning that it's hazardous to evaluate the performance. A blip? Or a deeper issue? The clash against Edinburgh is a chance to show that it was the former and right the ship at the first attempt.
Verdict: Ulster by ten.
Connacht v Cardiff Blues, The Sportsgound, Friday, 1935
Facing Glasgow Warriors away last week was always going to be the sternest of challenges for Connacht, and so it proved as they succumbed to defeat for the first time this season.
Glasgow's silky skills in attack were on full display in that tie, as they kept the ball alive, and passed with a fluency that has become their trademark. Few sides in the league can live with it, especially at Scotstoun, and Connacht did struggle to contain them.
Cardiff often play a similar style, which was evident in their narrow defeat to Leinster at the RDS, and Connacht will need to be far quicker to wrap man-and-ball in the tackle and snuff out attacks before they gain momentum and pull their defensive structures apart.
Pat Lam will be keenly aware of this and have pressed it home this week.
Eight changes to the starting line-up will freshen the legs for the Westerners and in the returning Kieran Marmion they have a potential match-winner both through leadership and his delivery of the ball to the outside backs.
Connacht have plenty to offer going forward. Even in defeat to Glasgow they racked up 21 points. If they can mend their defensive fissures ahead of the visit of Cardiff, they could well return to winning ways. Given their supreme confidence at home against Leinster two rounds ago, one would imagine that they are very capable of doing just that.
Verdict: Connacht by four.
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