Pro 12 gears up for derby battles

By Tadhg Peavoy

Munster v Leinster, Pro12, Thomond Park, Friday, kick-off 1700 (TG4 + RTE Radio 1)

The biggest grudge match in Irish rugby, and one of the biggest in Irish sport, returns for its next installment on St Stephen's Day.

Both teams come into this one having had a December that has offered up more questions than answers and both teams look short of their best. No better opportunity then to take a derby victory and right some of the failings we have seen both provinces display of late.

Munster's victory over Leinster on 4 October was their best display this season. That day at Aviva Stadium the pack displayed a ferocity and savage nature at the breakdown and in the set piece that Leinster simply could not cope with.

And when their backline was fed the ball, they were incisive. They took the ball with depth, and most importantly, used possession wisely and incisively.

Against Clermont in the Champions Cup, they were outshone in all of the above areas and were reduced to counter punching, hitting on the break and looking to find chinks in the French team's armour rather than dominating.

Against Glasgow last weekend, Munster did manage to up the ante in terms of creativity in the backline and also grunt up front, but again lost the tie. They couldn't sustain those twin towers of their game for long enough periods. Also, crucially, Glasgow's open, loose, offload in contact strategy overran Munster at times and forced the Irish province into a scramble defence that simply didn't cope.

So, with three defeats on the bounce, Clermont and Glasgow have given a solid template on how to defeat Anthony Foley's side. A high tempo pace up front, with few numbers committed to the breakdown, producing quick ruck ball. This is then used by a deep lying back line that uses strike runners to cause line breaks and offload to supporting angles.

The question is have Leinster got the wherewithal to produce that in Limerick with a sold-out Thomond baying for Dublin 4 blood? Matt O'Connor's team themselves have been greatly under-firing in their last three outings.

Defeat to Harlequins in round three of the Champions Cup set off alarm bells, with a stuttering performance in which unforced errors and a lack of dynamism were present across the line-up.

The following week's victory over the same opposition at Aviva Stadium kept them very much in the hunt to top their pool, but the performance in truth was devoid of confidence and the backline again played in a stuttering, uninspired, manner.

It posed big questions as to whether O'Connor's ideas are working and whether everything the 9-15 division did was far too structured on retention of the ball at all costs, with freedom and off-the-cuff concepts jettisoned. Victory over Connacht last weekend showed a minor improvement, but the same problems remained evident.

The answers to all those questions won't be found until far later in the season, but in facing Munster they have a chance to take on a side that is on a losing streak and are down confidence as a result.

But Munster never go gentle into that good night, especially not against their arch rivals; that indeed could prove to be the crucial factor as a spike in their passion could just push them ahead by a nose in this most hotly contested of derbies.

Verdict: Munster to win by four.

Munster: 15 Felix Jones (captain), 14 Andrew Conway, 13 Pat Howard, 12 Denis Hurley, 11 Ronan O'Mahony, 10 Ian Keatley, 9 Duncan Williams, 1 John Ryan, 2 Duncan Casey, 3 Stephen Archer, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 5 Billy Holland, 6 CJ Stander, 7 Tommy O'Donnell, 8 Robin Copeland.

Replacements: 16 Kevin O'Byrne, 17 Eusebio Guinazu, 18 BJ Botha, 19 Dave O'Callaghan, 20 Paddy Butler, 21 Neil Cronin, 22 JJ Hanrahan, 23 Johne Murphy.

Leinster: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Darragh Fanning, 13 Luke Fitzgerald, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Ian Madigan, 9 Isaac Boss, 1 Michael Bent, 2 Richardt Strauss, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 4 Mike McCarthy, 5 Kane Douglas, 6 Dominic Ryan, 7 Shane Jennings (captain), 8 Jack Conan.

Replacements: 16 Aaron Dundon, 17 Maks Van Dyk, 18 Jamie Hagan, 19 Tom Denton, 20 Jordi Murphy, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Jimmy Gopperth, 23 Noel Reid.

Ulster v Connacht, Pro12, Kingspan Stadium, Friday, kick-off 1845 (BBC NI)

With Ulster lying bottom of their Champions Cup pool, the dream of European glory is all but over for the northerners. As bitter a pill as that is to swallow, in terms of chasing Pro12 glory it will be a good thing. That competition can now be their sole focus and all resources targeted on claiming a first title since 2006.

In order to do that though, lots will have to improve. Recently they looked like a side that doesn't quite seem to have a coherent game plan, with a set piece that is rocky and with half-formed ideas out wide. And that is what has been frustrating about Ulster to far this season; their strength is their backline and their ability to create something from nothing, but this year errors and missed tackles have dogged their performances and brought them down to a level that is not acceptable in order to reach the knock-out stages of the European Cup or win the Pro12.

But they certainly have the skill in the side to turn that around and do something special this season. Fifth in the table at present is about right and this season will largely be about how they try to kick on from a poor opening half to change and adapt from the failures in their game.

Connacht, by contrast, come into the tie having had their most convincing start to the season ever. They lie just a spot behind Ulster in sixth, positioned in the automatic qualifying spots for the Champions Cup. In the Challenge Cup they are two points behind pool toppers Exeter and have shown an ability to play both creative rugby, as well as hard-nosed ball.

But going to Ulster is tough for any side, and with the home team hurting after defeats to Scarlets and Ospreys, they are going to be pumped for this one.

If they can get depth, speed and creativity going in the backline, then Ulster will get the four points here, with Craig Gilroy, Darren Cave and Luke Marshall all key creators. With Paddy Jackson back in harness at No 10 they also have a man who can spread the ball with superb effect. His injury problems have robbed Ulster them of one of their main thinkers on the field and having him back is fantastic news for the side.

Connacht will try to counter this style be using the midfield channel heavily, with Bundee Aki going hard up the centre and looking to create space for Danie Poolman and Matt Healy out wide. This should work to reasonable effect, but if Ulster's defence performs the choke on him, and also attempts to can-open most breakdowns Aki creates, then the key fast and wide ball that Connacht create so well will be denied.

The other option for Connacht is to attempt to bludgeon Ulster up front and keep this game tight. However, with Dan Tuohy, Franco van der Merwe and Robbie Diack all starting it's hard to see the Westerners gaining enough change in this area to do the required damage.

With all that taken into account one would have to conclude that Ulster will control the game adequately and provide enough game changing moves to take the points.

Verdict: Ulster to win by 12.

Ulster: 15 Louis Ludik, 14 Craig Gilroy, 13 Darren Cave, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Peter Nelson, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Paul Marshall, 1 Callum Black, 2 Rob Herring, 3 Wiehahn Herbst, 4 Dan Tuohy, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 6 Robbie Diack, 7 Clive Ross, 8 Roger Wilson (captain).

Replacements: 16 John Andrew, 17 Andrew Warwick, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Alan O'Connor, 20 Sean Reidy, 21 Michael Heaney, 22 Ian Humphreys, 23 Stuart Olding.

Connacht: 15 Darragh Leader, 14 Danie Poolman, 13 Bundee Aki, 12 Dave McSharry, 11 Matt Healy, 10 Jack Carty, 9 John Cooney, 1 Ronan Loughney, 2 Tom McCartney, 3 Finlay Bealham, 4 Quinn Roux, 5 Aly Muldowney, 6 John Muldoon (captain), 7 Willie Faloon, 8 George Naoupu.

Replacements: 16 Dave Heffernan, 17 Denis Buckley, 18 Rodney Ah You, 19 Ultan Dillane, 20 Eoghan Masterson, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Craig Ronaldson, 23 Mils Muliaina.

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