Updated: Saturday, 24 Jan 2015 14:40 | Comments
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By Tadhg Peavoy
La Rochelle v Connacht, Challenge Cup Pool 2, Stade Marcel Deflandre, Saturday, kick-off 17:30
Connacht's slip up at home to Exeter in round five has left them in a difficult position in the pool. Second in the table they must win to have any chance of qualifying for the last eight as one of the best runners-up.
La Rochelle are the pool's basement side and with that their motivation won't be at its zenith, which can only aid Connacht's cause.
Mils Muliaina starts at full-back for the Westerners and captains the side, and his leadership will be pivotal for Pat Lam's team. But in midfield there's a big hole with neither of their star pairing of Robbie Henshaw or Bundee Aki fit to feature. They're a different proposition with these two missing and far less potent.
Danie Poolman and Conor Finn step in. A lot will depend on how halfbacks Jack Carty and Kieran Marmion will control the game, based on a big performance from their pack. In that department, Quinn Roux, Eoin McKeon and George Naoupu will all be called upon to set the standard.
Connacht have a proud record in France, having won ten of their last 11 ties there, and given they hammered La Rochelle 42-19 in Galway they go into the tie as favourites. They are highly unlikely to cut open in the same manner, but if they perform to the same level as they did even in defeat to Exeter last weekend they will wear the French team down as the clock winds on.
Verdict: Connact to win by eight.
Ulster v Leicester Tigers, Champions Cup Pool 3, Kingspan Stadium, Saturday, kick-off 17:30
As far as European Cup campaigns go, Ulster's has been about as bad as you would hope they will ever have. Just one win and seven points has them rooted to the boom of the Pool 3 table and dead and buried entering round six.
This tie is about pride for them and getting a win that will set down a marker about the standard they hope and expect to deliver in the remainder of the Pro12 season.
With that in mind, Neil Doak has named a very strong XV. Jared Payne, Tommy Bowe, Darren Cave, Luke Marshall, Craig Gilroy, Ian Humpreys and Ruan Pienaar make up a superb back line. And ahead of them in the pack Rory Best, Wiehan Herbst, Franco van der Merwe, Iain Henderson and Roger Wilson form the core of a solid pack.
So, why has this undoubtedly talented team found themselves lying so lowly in Pool 3. The quality of the opposition must be taken into account. Toulon are the best side on the continent, and possibly in the world right now, and Leicester are, well Leicester. A team that is consistently good year in, year out, and are always remarkably difficult to beat.
But the problems within the Ulster side have been there for all to see. The pack has performed solidly enough in the scrum and lineout, but in terms of offering a dynamic breakdown and loose-field game they simply have not delivered yet this season.
Add to that the back line issues. No connectedness, sloppiness, a lack of incision and a rather dithered and mired game plan have all been issues from 9-15.
Leicester's hopes of making the last eight are hanging by a thread as they enter this game. They currently sit second in the pool, with 13 points, meaning they absolutely must win, and hope other results go their way, if they are to muscle their way into the quarters.
Therefore Ulster can expect the Tigers to come into this tie playing as though everything is on the line, which it is.
On that basis they have to be favourites to come to Belfast and nick this one. One would never imagine that Ulster will roll over at home, but whether they will able to call on the same reserves of desire in what is a dead rubber for them remains to be seen.
Tigers have Geoff Parling, Tom Croft and Jordan Crane as their key trio in the pack and if those three perform their platform will be there. And out wide the Tigers have killer instinct in Seremaia Bai, Vereneki Goneva and Matthew Tait.
If Ulster can recapture their scintillating back line form of last season they could win this by a couple of tries, but if they don't Leicester will outpower them in key areas to get across the line.
Verdict: Leicester to win by three.
Munster v Sale Sharks, Champions Cup Pool 1, Thomond Park, Sunday, kick-off 15:15
Like Ulster, Munster's European season has been one of underachievement.
This powerhouse of the continent's oval ball game has stuttered throughout the opening five rounds, at times looking sublime, but more often than not looking surprisingly disjointed and lacking a coherent game plan.
No matter what happens they won't be emerging from this pool into the last eight and the best they can hope for is a morale-boosting win.
When Munter have been at their best this year it's when they have gone oldschool and played very much a ten-man game; battering teams in the pack, kicking for corners and using physicality and aggression to get the job done.
But is this enough to win matches any more? It won Munster European Cups in 2006 and 2008; however, the game has moved on drastically in the intervening seven years, and the necessary toolkit to get to the European final has expanded.
You feel Anthony Foley and his brains trust will have to take this on board heading into the back end of this season and looking ahead to the next European campaign and combine their hard-nosed pack effort with something more refined out wide.
All concerned with Irish rugby want to see a strong Munster, and it is essential for the national team that they are a force. The desire to change, adapt and fix what went wrong this season starts now. All success starts from failure, and Foley is only at the beginning of his journey as Munster's leader. Overcoming this pool stage exit is his first big hurdle.
Coming good in the Pro12 in May will be the target now and this clash with Sale is the perfect opportunity for him to begin to blend and experiment with new ideas in his backline.
The return of Keith Earls at 13 is massive for them and he could well be the key man that Foley builds his team around. With Simon Zebo and Andrew Conway also starting, Munster have a trio right there that can do real damage to Sale. In the pack, Paul O'Connell, Tommy O'Donnell, and Peter O'Mahony all start and the eight as a whole will want a good display following the nightmare performance they delivered away to Saracens in the last round.
Sale at home is a game well within Munster's range and they will know the home crowd will be expecting a bounce back this week.
In terms of Sale's threats, Luke McClean at fullback is their most dangerous ball carrier named, and Tom Arscott is dangerous on the wing. Outside of that the backline looks ordinary. In the pack, Andrea de Marchi is the only player who would be pressing for inclusion in the Munster pack.
It all points one way and anything other than a comprehensive victory for Munster will raise big questions.
Verdict: Munster to win by 20.
Wasps v Leinster, Champions Cup Pool 2, Ricoh Arena, Saturday, kick-off 13:00
It's winner takes all between the Pro12 and the Premiership in this one. A straight-up shoot-out to decide which side takes a spot in the quarter-finals.
The Irish side appear to have turned a corner in recent weeks after a November and December in which they failed to fire and began to cop flak from all quarters about their playing style, personnel and coaching set-up.
Pro12 victories over Ulster and Cardiff, followed by a home Champions Cup victory over Castres last week have seen Leinster gradually grow in confidence and expand their playing style from one of flat, narrow-run channels, to something far more expansive and with a cutting edge. The performance of the pack - minus at scrum time - has been largely adequate all season, but the backline has been hot and cold since September.
This three-week hot streak has got belief in the squad at possibly its highest point so far this season, and now the goal is to produce a performance away from home that will send out a warning shot to the rest of the tournament that the Irish are not dead and buried in Europe just yet.
That stability is reflected in O'Connor's starting XV, which shows just two changes from the side that dismantled Castres in round five. Captain Jamie Heaslip returns at No 8 and Dominic Ryan comes into the back row alongside him at blindside flanker.
Interestingly, Wasps come into the tie in a very similar vein of form. They lie fourth in the Premiership table and hammered Harlequins 23-3 at the Stoop last weekend to set up this decider. Their director of rugby Dai Young has also made just two changes to his side, with James Gaskell coming into the second row, while Ben Jacobs starts in the centre in place of the injured Alapati Leiua, whose loss is a big one for Wasps and a bonus for Leinster.
Both teams also have game plans that can mirror each other. They both like to play quick ruck ball, using their back rows heavily to carry in the loose and as free runners in the backline. They also both like to draw in cover and then spread out the line to give their dangerous wide men open country to exploit.
In that sense, both teams will be attempting to do the same thing to each other: win the back row battle, dominate the channels around the ruck and create mismatches and overlaps or dog legs out wide.
At halfback Wasps have Joe Simpson and Andy Goode running the show. Simpson is hugely dangerous on the snipe and Ryan and Jordi Murphy need to be alert to any gaps around the fringe or T1 area to make sure he can't get a nudge on them. If he does he will get in behind the first line of defence where the Wasps back rowers will rush the support channel and Leinster will be in trouble.
Goode at 10 is either going to be a weak link for Wasps or give a tactical masterclass. He has superb ball playing skills but his fitness is not world class. I imagine Heaslip will be taking it upon himself to rush that channel all day, using his work rate to put Goode under pressure and force the out-half into errors.
The Wasps back row of Ashley Johnson, James Haskell and Nathan Hughes is the best unit in their team. They are dynamic, fast, strong and serious ball players to a man.
Their match-up with Ryan, Murphy and Heaslip will go a large way towards deciding who wins this match; it's simply an area of the game Leinster must be better in.
The other major threats are the cheetahs on the wings: Eliot Wade and Tom Varndell. They are two of the most dangerous back three players in Europe and if Leinster get sucked into a narrow game plan and lose their width and defensive structures those two will be the men to capitalise.
While at the coalface, it's a big a day in Michael Bent's career as he's ever had. He will be put to the pin of his collar by Lorenzo Cittadini and if Bent can't deliver he'll be roasted alive.
Both tight fives other than that one slot are very evenly balanced, and it's hard to see one pack getting a serious dominance for more than patches of the tie.
With that thought in mind, negating the key threats in the Wasps XV is key for Leinster. If they do that, step one is accomplished. The second goal is to ensure when they have the platform that they use it. If the backline reverts to the flat game plan they deployed earlier in the season they will be in for a very unfruitful day in the midlands. But taking into account their January so far, one gets the inkling that they may just have the goods to get the job done.
Verdict: Leinster to win by six.
@TPeavoy
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