By Numbers: Are Italy harder to beat early on?

By Brendan Cole

Simon Easterby - and many other pundits - said this week that Italy are harder to beat early in the Six Nations.

That sense that the Italians are at their best on opening day is borne out by the numbers to an extent, but possibly not enough to suggest that Ireland will have an especially hard time of it today.

The trend is evident if we break each Six Nations year into rounds and go back five years. That shows that Italy's average points difference in the first round is -8.2.

It is at least double that in each subsequent round with Round Three being the next 'best' at -16.4. Rounds Two (-17.8), Round Four (-18.4) and Round Five (-18.2) aren't much better.

But there are too many caveats to simply accept the information at face value with single high margin victories skewing the average substantially.

Italy have lost by 46, 32, 39 and 41 in the last four rounds. Their biggest defeats in Round One over the last five years have been by 18 points (twice).

It is true that England, who play Italy at home next week and have beaten Wales in Cardiff, are in a hugely strong position in the table. After all England won by 41 points in Rome last year on the final day.

Perhaps the best way of putting it is that Italy don't tend to be hammered on Day One but that they usually concede at least one big score.

Ireland have actually put up big totals against Italy twice (2012 and 2014). But the result in Cardiff means that a Grand Slam looks like Ireland's only viable route to victory in this year's Championship, unless something remarkable happens in Twickenham next week.