Updated: Saturday, 14 Feb 2015 13:21 | Comments
By Brendan Cole
They come into this clash with a host of factors in their favour but history says that France can never be taken lightly by Ireland.
The aggregate score in the last four Six Nations clashes is a single point in France's favour, while before Paris in 2014, Ireland had not beaten France since 2009. Results have improved but wins remain rare.
The French themselves know little enough about when and why the mood will take hold, but when it does they are a rugby force to be reckoned with.
Against that, it must be said that some confidence is justified.
Ireland are a serious team these days and under Joe Schmidt have become – arguably for the first time in the professional era – genuinely consistent. Schmidt's first match in charge against Australia in 2013 remains the only incidence of real 'non-performance' on his watch.
Last week's display against Italy was not out of the top drawer but it was more than good enough. Professional with enough pressure points located and exploited to make up for some sloppy execution.
But there is surely improvement to come. Ian Keatley was rightly praised for aspects of his performance in Rome but his distribution was ponderous at times and the return of Jonathan Sexton should add much needed snap, speed and accuracy to the attack.
Up front, adding Sean O'Brien and Jamie Heaslip to the back-row lifts a key unit from good to excellent. Heaslip epitomises the Schmidt doctrine of making minimal mistakes and getting every technical and positional aspect right, while O'Brien is one of those rare players capable of bursting apart well-set defensive structures.
Both also substantially increase Ireland's turnover threat. That is badly needed as only two were recorded against Italy. Both Heaslip and O'Brien are stronger over the ball than the lighter-framed duo of Tommy O'Donnell and Jordi Murphy and their additional threat should also bring Peter O'Mahony's skill in that area into play.
Threatening France in possession is key, as even under Schmidt, the better teams have tended to have long and productive purple patches against Ireland.
As with last year, when Ireland kicked from the hand over 30 times, kicking will be a key safety valve that will be used to take pressure off and get France moving around.
"Wesley Fofana and Mathieu Bastareaud are both highly physically talented, but neither have ever shown much aptitude for running scripted plays"
But Wales' eventual pummelling at the hands of England is a salutary lesson in perils of 'kick and hope' rugby. A proper game will break out at some point and Ireland must be prepared when it does.
They must manage the French attack. Wesley Fofana and Mathieu Bastareaud are both highly physically talented, but neither have ever shown much aptitude for running scripted plays. Poor tackling and allowing offloads are the key dangers.
Ireland must also respect France's ability to wear them down. The Top 14 style is not pretty but dull and effective rugby does, as Ireland showed last week against Italy, eventually produce space out wide. Camile Lopez has excellent timing and a great long pass, and that will become even more of a factor when Morgan Parra joins him.
If they do get worn down, there are vulnerabilities in the Irish defensive line. Mike Ross and Devin are obvious targets, while Sexton and Jared Payne can also expect to see plenty of traffic. Concussion is a hot topic in the game but that did not stop France flanker Bernard La Roux from advising Sexton to wear a helmet. At least, Ireland's backline general is ready for it.
Ireland will also look to move France around but getting the balance right between giving up possession will be vital. If they can form up quickly enough, the driving maul should also help Ireland to sap the energy from French legs.
France will apply the same tactic and Ireland may well get creative in seeking to stop it. The 'non-engagement' strategy will doubtless be seen, but there is no getting away from the fact that France have an advantage.
Ireland must also make sure they get on the right side of the pernickety Wayne Barnes. He has red-carded Heaslip (rightly) and given a dubious match-deciding penalty (wrongly, against Stephen Ferris) when refereeing Ireland in the past. France have happier memories of the Englishman, with 2007's infamous forward pass to set up a shock win over New Zealand taking place on his watch.
It should also be remembered that Brian O'Driscoll produced some of his best rugby against France and his absence is a factor as is that of Andrew Trimble, architect of the match-winning move last year and vastly improved under Schmidt.
It is far from as cut and dried as some are seeing it, though that said, if Ireland get off to a good start, they could establish separation on the scoreboard and cut loose. But if France can keep it close and get on top of Ireland in the scrum and close to the ruck, even Schmidt's best-laid plans may not be enough.
The key may be tempo and if Sexton can supply that, Ireland should be able to come away with a win.
Prediction: Ireland 21-13 France
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