Grand National: Who to back in the big race

Shutthefrontdoor was a 25-1 shot for the Grand National with some bookmakers after scoring at Carlisle in November on his only start of the season.

Not too much has changed to bolster his prospects of success in the interim, but he's now no bigger than 7-1 for the world's most famous steeplechase and likely to go off at an even shorter starting price.

Despite winning last season's Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on his penultimate outing, Jonjo O'Neill's eight-year-old remains thoroughly unexposed over fences. He's raced over birch just six times in his life and looks capable of significant improvement. His stamina for this marathon trip looks assured and his absence from the racecourse has been by design, rather than due to any injury issues. Ensconced in O'Neill's luxurious Jackdaws Castle facility - think an equine Sandy Lane, but with a better gym - his handicap mark remained protected. He'll have been prepped to run the race of his life on Saturday afternoon by a trainer with a strong record in the race. All these positives merit his price contracting in the betting.

The McCoy factor

The main stumbling block for those wishing to support him is the degree of the price collapse and what spurred it.

The news that Tony McCoy couldn't go on forever and the revelation that this was to be his last season in the saddle was always likely to have a major impact on the odds of his chosen mount in the Aintree spectacular.

The lure of supporting racing's iron man as he bids for a fairytale ending to his career has gathered pace. Fairytales can come true, but McCoy's imminent departure is tangential to Shutthefrontdoor's performance.

Images of the perennial champion jockey will continue to dominate the media coverage until the tapes go up. In a world where optics and perception count for so much, punters will pay a premium for the brand recognition McCoy possesses.

The leading challengers

Second favourite Rocky Creek jumps well and ran fifth in last year's renewal as an eight-year-old. He hasn't been penalised for his impressive last-time-out victory at Kempton as the weights had already been framed before that contest and he should be improving as he continues to fill his ample frame.

There may still be doubts about his ability to truly stay this extreme trip after he tired in the closing stages of last year's race. Another negative surrounds his wind, as Paul Nicholls' charge has experienced breathing problems in the past. Staying three miles at a sharp track like Kempton wouldn't have allayed any fears in that area and this is an altogether more gruelling test of endurance.

Balthazar King should relish the good ground and is a paragon of consistency. The cross-country king claimed second in the Grand National 12 months ago and looks poised to run another big race. However, he is exposed after 26 starts over fences and is likely to prove vulnerable to more lightly-raced types.

As retained rider to JP McManus, McCoy could have thrown his leg over Cause of Causes, but Paul Carberry will instead be in the plate on Saturday afternoon. The ultimate stylist, Carberry is a more than able deputy for McCoy, but he won't carry the same cachet for the once-a-year punters. It's interesting to speculate as to what price Cause Of Causes would be if the champ had eschewed Shutthefrontdoor in favour of Gordon Elliott's runner and what price the latter would be if he was partnered by Carberry. He could yet prove the yellow-pack value alternative to McCoy's mount.

However, his age may be against him, as a seven-year-olds have a lamentable record in the race.

He also showed such good form over two miles during his hurdling days that his stamina could be suspect. The son of Dynaformer did win over four miles at the Cheltenham Festival, but that was in a steadily-run affair where he was ridden like a non-stayer.

There's also a concern that Cause Of Causes was trained to the minute to peak at Cheltenham and that this rigorous test is an afterthought.

That comment also applies to The Druids Nephew, but that might be the only negative in his profile. The perfect preparatory campaign for the Grand National is a matter for conjecture, but a number of his rivals will have had their seasons' structured - some would say sacrificed - so as to deliver their very best at Aintree. If The Druids Nephew can maintain his form and find a little improvement he would go close.

Soll has proven a revelation since transferring to the David Pipe yard, but he'll need to settle much better than he did at Newbury to last home on Merseyside. The blinkers he sported in his most recent success will be deployed again and could light him up once more. Tom Scudamore's mount lined up in the 2013 Grand National but faded badly in the closing stages.

Best of the rest

My shortlist has proven quite a misnomer, with Night In Milan, The Druids Nephew, Al Co, Monbeg Dude, Across The Bay, Oscar Time, Portrait King, Pineau De Re, Godsmejudge, Alvarado, Court By Surprise and Royale Knight reluctantly whittled down to a more manageable final four.

Cases could also be made for Duke Of Lucca and Raz De Maree, but these reserves look unlikely to get a run.

Alvarado and Godsmejudge have plenty in their profiles to recommend them for Grand National glory.

Alvarado boasts winning form over marathon trips and stayed on dourly to finish fourth in last year's race, but his requirement to be ridden from the rear means he's far from guaranteed to avoid traffic problems along the way.

Godsmejudge won the Scottish version of this race in 2013 and has run a series of big races in other long-distance chases.

The worry for both these challengers is that their form this season - or lack of it - could count against them. They were my long-term fancies for the race, but my faith is wavering.

Court By Surprise has made significant improvement this season and looks like a horse who could be well suited by this unique test.

Richard Newland has been notably keen to preserve Royale Knight's handicap mark since he sauntered clear up the run-in when scoring in last October's Durham National at lowly Sedgefield. He may have raced 17 times over fences, but he remains unexposed over marathon distances on good ground. The conditions underfoot do seem to be critical to his chances, which would diminish rapidly with any significant rainfall.

The main negative Royale Knight will have to overcome pertains to class. His progress is encouraging, but he has yet to face top-notch opposition.

Pineau De Re was an emphatic winner last year for Dr Newland when he belied doubts concerning his jumping technique to prevail. If he gets clear round he could prove a fly in the ointment, despite having to shoulder an extra 8lbs this time around.

Always take a price, insist on at least five places if you're betting each-way and be lucky.

Selection: Royale Knight
Alternatives: Court By Surprise, Alvarado, Godsmejudge

The first and second in the 2014 Grand National were tipped here

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