The points race for the Six Nations title

By Brendan Cole

As well as contesting individual Test matches this weekend, Ireland, England and Wales are all involved in a race for the Six Nations title that will be decided by points difference.

France are also in with a chance of securing the title. But Les Bleus would need all the other teams involved to lose.

England have the advantage of playing at home and will also be favoured by knowing exactly what they need to do before their clash with France kicks off as their match is the third of the day. England are also four points ahead in the current table.

But Ireland and Wales take on the two weakest sides in the Championship in the shape of Scotland and Italy and the likelihood that at least one of them will manage to set a target for Stuart Lancaster is strong.

The bookmakers make Ireland eight point favourites in Murrayfield, while Wales are given a 23 point head-start in the handicap in Rome. England, for their part, are given a 10-point head-start by the bookies. If things play out as the oddsmakers expect, England will win the title.

Ireland lost the title in agonising circumstances in 2007 with a last-minute French try against Scotland in Paris, and an earlier injury-time try conceded by Ireland in Italy combining to put France on top of the table by four points at the death.

The title will be decided on the table, followed by points difference, followed by tries score. In the event of all these things being equal, it will be shared.

Ireland

As with everyone else, Ireland would win the title if they win and Wales and England lose.

In the points race scenario, England are only four ahead as things stand but if Ireland are to win on points difference, they will almost certainly need to beat Scotland by at least six points to set a target. A win by England will add at least one to their points difference, while their superior try tally will most likely they mean they win the title on that front if the sides are level on points difference.

England currently lead the tries-scored table with 11. Ireland have only four, while Wales have five.

Ireland also need to hope that Wales don't manage a big win in Rome but will know before kick-off whether the Welsh have managed to win by enough points for it to be a factor. Wales need to win by 22 or more to set a target for Ireland. If England lose and Wales either lose or win by less than 22 Italy, a simple victory in Murrayfield would be enough for Ireland to claim a second title in two years.

Ireland could theoretically lose this match and still win the title. That would require Wales to lose, France to beat England but by seven points or less and Ireland to stay ahead of France on points difference depending on their respective results.

England

England are in the strongest position and will know exactly what is needed when their match kicks off at 5pm. They are well ahead of Wales on points difference and will hope Ireland either lose or win by less than six. If they can't set a target on the scoreboard either Ireland or Wales could well be in a situation where they are hoping for a favour from France going into the final match. A victory for Ireland or Wales will immediately rule France out of the title race.

Wales

Wales either need to beat Italy by a big margin or hope that both England and Ireland lose.

They will hope to set a points difference target for both England and Ireland. They will need to win by at least 27 points to get ahead of England or at least 22 points to get ahead of Ireland. Each additional point on those margins of victory will increase their chances of lifting the trophy at the end. There are only two actually physical 6 Nations trophies and neither has been sent to Rome. Extra motivation for the Welsh. If Wales do manage to catch England with a wide-margin win, they could also end up passing them out on the try-scoring chart as well.

France

The obstacles mean France are rank outsiders at this stage but you can never write them off in this Championship. The potential for a huge performance must make them a danger to the other three, though France do need everything to go their way to be in with a chance.

If Ireland and Wales are both beaten, France's target will be victory over England by eight points or more, which would see them leapfrog their direct rivals into first place. France could also play the party-pooper role by beating England on the day but doing so by less than eight points. That could either re-open the door for Ireland and Wales or hand England a bittersweet triumph.

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